Although I haven't posted in a while, Dow Theory remains firmly in bear market territory. My 
thesis after the crash was that the stock market would remain in a long term trading range between 8000 - 9625. At one point, back in June, it looked like it would blast right on through to 10,000. Instead it rolled over for about 1000 points. We may see that again right now. If so, I'm looking for a drop to no lower than 8400 and a higher low than the July low. That would be very positive for a year end rally. My time frame is to around October 10th-15th when/if it bottoms out. This is the chart I put up back in April 2009, and we're currently at the upper end of the range of course.
The key buy signals are closes above the November 4th 2008 close. For the record, the S&P 500 and Naz Comp have taken out their Nov 4th highs. The S&P just barely accomplished the task. But for a
genuine bull signal both the DJIA and Trans need to give new buy signals and so far neither has. That's why I believe that this is a bear market rally until proven otherwise. that means I'm trading in and out of the market, taking gains where Im getting them. Not believing -- Yes -- you can't be a believer in any of this or any of these companies because as they have proven all decade -- they'll kill you in the long run. I don't care what they blabber about on TV, I don't read any financial newspapers other than the Financial Times, no Barrons (which is a complete waste), don't care about conference calls or what the CEOs are saying. Who the F cares -- you going to believe them anyway?? I just look at the score board (the tape) and go from there.
Anyway, I won't loosen up from a defensive bias to a more openly offensive one until we get a bona fide Dow Theory Buy signal. And right now, we aren't even close.
thesis after the crash was that the stock market would remain in a long term trading range between 8000 - 9625. At one point, back in June, it looked like it would blast right on through to 10,000. Instead it rolled over for about 1000 points. We may see that again right now. If so, I'm looking for a drop to no lower than 8400 and a higher low than the July low. That would be very positive for a year end rally. My time frame is to around October 10th-15th when/if it bottoms out. This is the chart I put up back in April 2009, and we're currently at the upper end of the range of course.The key buy signals are closes above the November 4th 2008 close. For the record, the S&P 500 and Naz Comp have taken out their Nov 4th highs. The S&P just barely accomplished the task. But for a
genuine bull signal both the DJIA and Trans need to give new buy signals and so far neither has. That's why I believe that this is a bear market rally until proven otherwise. that means I'm trading in and out of the market, taking gains where Im getting them. Not believing -- Yes -- you can't be a believer in any of this or any of these companies because as they have proven all decade -- they'll kill you in the long run. I don't care what they blabber about on TV, I don't read any financial newspapers other than the Financial Times, no Barrons (which is a complete waste), don't care about conference calls or what the CEOs are saying. Who the F cares -- you going to believe them anyway?? I just look at the score board (the tape) and go from there.Anyway, I won't loosen up from a defensive bias to a more openly offensive one until we get a bona fide Dow Theory Buy signal. And right now, we aren't even close.
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