Stocks v Metals

Stocks finally went up today. I didn't think I'd ever see that again. The metals are essentially a safety play and they went the other way. If you came to the table late it's probably a very good idea to not let GLD, or whatever it is you're in, to run too far against you. Remember you can always go back in - later. 

My PGM and SLV positions got taken out today. I'm now only left w/ a position in the gold futures market.  Reviewing my SLV position, it worked out pretty well. I initiated based on my first model signal back on January 20th at 11.15. I added on (2x) to the position  and got stopped out around the 13.60 area. This is a trade that will completely collapse if the stock market were to take off from here. If Obama's speech is favorably received tonight, and stocks move higher overnight and tomorrow, my Gold position will be taken out as well. That's fine. I want to be among the first ones out. None of that believing stuff. Pure numbers. . My philosophy is to not let too much of those profits get away at this point. This is a base hit. A double at best. No jumbo sized profit. It is what it is.  If the trend in the metals reasserts itself, fine, I'll get my signal and start all over again. I don't have to concern myself with a collapse w/ me in it and worst of all giving back my gains. 

Last night, what I could tolerate of Craemer (about 3 or 4 minutes) I heard him going off about how great Gold is. He may very well do it for the unteenth time, getting his followers in at the top. Follower - those that believe that Cramer actually knows something. He's just like you and me and doesn't know squat. Again if stocks take off (I'm not saying that they will) but  it's clear that Gold is going to get crushed. 

I aslo got knocked out of my PGM trade for a small loss after the hard stop was ratcheted  up to just below break even. That ETF was performing very poorly after I entered. 

There was a really nice trade to be had in the ES (mini) futures today. Nothing better than a trend up or down day for that vehicle. Quite frankly, I've had more than my share of Down days and don't want anymore for the time being.   This contract has the potential to be really explosive - for and against. This is a very dangerous trading vehicle for someone who can't get out of their losers fast. Trust  me on this one. This little old mini has the potential to take everything you got if you mess up with it. . If you suffer from  loseitis , stay away from the futures. Period. 

Anyway, in the ES, the first buy signal came in at around 10:00 (1/2 hour) time frame. that got subsequently stopped out. Got another sig around  the 12:00 (1/2 hour) time frame and gave it another shot. That one took off. After they take off the idea is to start ratcheting the stops up. Now. Do I take my profits or let em go? How many times does one have to get knocked in the head before they smarten up  a little? In my case its one more time, because I'm letting it go. Again if the Obamamister is well received this could really turn into something nice. Otherwise I lock in around 12 mini points. Factoring in the earlier lose, the net is around 6 mini points. There was a decent trade in the AUD as well today using the same principals as the ES. That one's gone. The currency markets have really sucked  and been really erratic. I've been getting stopped out of almost everything there of late. 

Don't be surprised if the markets crash tomorrow.. That's been the pattern for several months now.