ever fucking stop? Who are these sobs' that sell this market non-stop? I suppose the selling will burn out someday just like the plague did in the 1300s. There just weren't any more hosts left to carry the plague - that's when it ended. That's probably how this selling will end. I'm lost when it comes to the ferocity of this kind of selling. Where is it coming from and who is doing it. At first, I thought we were dealing w/ forced liquidation and dopey foreign selling. But now I just don't know. You figure these hedge funds are sold out by now - it doesn't take 2 months does it? I doubt that it's the pension funds. Where the hell is it coming from. I mean this week it was constant - except when the US Gov't interceding and ran up yesterday's close.
Now a days holding a position longer than 1 hour is long term. For me, that's the only thing that is working. What ever happened to bear market rallies that last longer than 15 minutes? Anything between (-100) - (-199) is like having an up day on the Dow. My trading has been fantastic in this chaos, but it's no match against the constant downward crashing value of positions that are being held. I'm lucky that I sold out of CME in the high 300s last week because today it hit 240. WTF!! I haven't been so lucky with some others. I have 55 shares of FSLR. That's right $55 shares that I sort of forgot about. I mean how much harm can 55 shares cause, right? 55 shares are a joke! Well let me tell you, those 55 shares are contributing nicely to the massive hole being bored right through my portfolio. 55 stinking shares!!
I'll tell you one thing, I feel bad for the folks that don't "play" the market like we do, because they saw it as a savings vehicle for their retirement years. We live and die by the sword and can take it, or at least expect it. But those people have gotten completely hammered by this. I don't thing those folks will ever come back and who could blame them. As for me, when I approach 60 (god willing), there is no way I'll be anyplace near stocks for "retirement". Maybe 15% - tops. The rest gov't fixed income securities 5yrs and shorter. Why take the risk? By then, be satisfied with what the hell you've accumulated and enjoy those years. At that stage I won't be any place near a monitor. Trading/Investing will be in my past, and just like I quit my law career several years ago, my trading/investing days will be over. I'll become a greeter at Wal-Mart or something. Bottom line no matter how bad this market is and its destruction to my wealth, it still beats the hell out of being a lawyer.
That's how bad law is. I could have handled this disaster better, in hindsight of course, but at least I'll get out of this thing. I know a few people who are already finished. Too leveraged and unwilling to size down was their undoing. How much more can we go down - 20% from here? That brings us to 6800 Dow - a 50% decline. 60% is 5600, 70% is 4200. My fair value est is around 9500 - 10500 based on earnings of $700. Will it surprise anyone it we're down 700 points on Monday, how about 900 - what's the difference. The sick thing is we're getting used to it. At this point, a 6000 handle on the Dow seems very feasible.
What about the recession? Isn't that priced in? The S&P is down 45% for God sake. Where one piece of bad news, on top of scores of others, knocks the Dow down 500 points in minutes calls into question the soundness of the entire system. I don't know what to say or think, maybe the whole damn thing is just broken. The economy cannot be man handled by these morons in Washington - that's clear. The economy is like a runaway freight train that will cascade lower into the trough of the business cycle, no matter what the policy makers do. Home prices need a 25% haircut - that will stabilize the market and bring the buyers out.
Now a days holding a position longer than 1 hour is long term. For me, that's the only thing that is working. What ever happened to bear market rallies that last longer than 15 minutes? Anything between (-100) - (-199) is like having an up day on the Dow. My trading has been fantastic in this chaos, but it's no match against the constant downward crashing value of positions that are being held. I'm lucky that I sold out of CME in the high 300s last week because today it hit 240. WTF!! I haven't been so lucky with some others. I have 55 shares of FSLR. That's right $55 shares that I sort of forgot about. I mean how much harm can 55 shares cause, right? 55 shares are a joke! Well let me tell you, those 55 shares are contributing nicely to the massive hole being bored right through my portfolio. 55 stinking shares!!
I'll tell you one thing, I feel bad for the folks that don't "play" the market like we do, because they saw it as a savings vehicle for their retirement years. We live and die by the sword and can take it, or at least expect it. But those people have gotten completely hammered by this. I don't thing those folks will ever come back and who could blame them. As for me, when I approach 60 (god willing), there is no way I'll be anyplace near stocks for "retirement". Maybe 15% - tops. The rest gov't fixed income securities 5yrs and shorter. Why take the risk? By then, be satisfied with what the hell you've accumulated and enjoy those years. At that stage I won't be any place near a monitor. Trading/Investing will be in my past, and just like I quit my law career several years ago, my trading/investing days will be over. I'll become a greeter at Wal-Mart or something. Bottom line no matter how bad this market is and its destruction to my wealth, it still beats the hell out of being a lawyer.
That's how bad law is. I could have handled this disaster better, in hindsight of course, but at least I'll get out of this thing. I know a few people who are already finished. Too leveraged and unwilling to size down was their undoing. How much more can we go down - 20% from here? That brings us to 6800 Dow - a 50% decline. 60% is 5600, 70% is 4200. My fair value est is around 9500 - 10500 based on earnings of $700. Will it surprise anyone it we're down 700 points on Monday, how about 900 - what's the difference. The sick thing is we're getting used to it. At this point, a 6000 handle on the Dow seems very feasible.
What about the recession? Isn't that priced in? The S&P is down 45% for God sake. Where one piece of bad news, on top of scores of others, knocks the Dow down 500 points in minutes calls into question the soundness of the entire system. I don't know what to say or think, maybe the whole damn thing is just broken. The economy cannot be man handled by these morons in Washington - that's clear. The economy is like a runaway freight train that will cascade lower into the trough of the business cycle, no matter what the policy makers do. Home prices need a 25% haircut - that will stabilize the market and bring the buyers out.
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