Thursday, July 17, 2008

Weekly Pivot Range as a guide


The Weekly Pivot range is 8370 - 8410 which the market has not penetrated. This morning it tested this major resistance level before falling back. It is imperative that this level be taken out if this rally is going to go anyplace. The weekly pivot range is the "meat of the market" and are the price levels that the majority of trading took place last week. It's outlined in the book the Logical Trader by Mark Fisher. The Weekly Pivot Points based on last week's volatility are :

8890 resistance 3
8709 R2
8530 R1
8390 - mid pivot
8208 S1
8070 S2
7890 Support 1

We are still right around the mid point level even after yesterday's 260 point Dow gain. Not that great. My upside target is R1 at 8530 which would be a real nice accomplishment, but unless we first take out the weekly pivot range, and soon, it's probably not going to happen. And the longer we hang at the mid pivot point, the greater the odds that this market falls back again. The issue is whether the bulls can take control right here. If they can, I think we've got a pretty good shot at a nice rally. Note that for the past several weeks, the market has traded below the weekly pivot range just about the entire time. In fact it hasn't even flirted with taking it out to the upside. Also we've been hitting the S1, and S2 levels each week. It would be real nice to see it go the other way for a change.

I've still got those OEX calls but the clock is starting to tick on this trade. If the wkly pv is taken out great, I'll stay with them. If not, I'll likely cut back 1/2 my position by the close.

The weekly pivot range for the SSO (leveraged S&P 500 etf) is 58 - 58.75. It's currently trading at 58.55 so a close above 58.75 is key.

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phil
I'm a professional trader with 25 years of experience. I try to avoid all outside influences and other opinions when it comes to trading. All that matters is price. Forget the other BS its basically useless.
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