Friday, July 11, 2008

The Intelligent Investor


The market is getting annihilated this morning on exacerbated fears related to the credit crisis. The fear, at this moment, is Mr. Market's perception that Fannie and Freddie are insolvent. Based on the gross mismanagement and low debt to equity standards employed at both institutions the past decade, they probably are. I wouldn't be so quick to discount the market's view on this one.

LEH is also being taken to the woodshed now trading at $14.00 regardless of who is pouring money into that seemingly bottomless pit. I might add that a New Jersey State pension fund poured a few hundred million in last week. Probably got suckered in by the promise of bringing some jobs to the Garden State. The whores in Trenton will do anything that smells of expanding the tax base. That includes encouraging the municipalities to raise property taxes at every twist and turn on the sun dial, refusing to lay off useless bureaucrats, providing building permits for construction of just about anything on all open spaces. We even charge the public to access our beaches (sickening). Now they've been suckered in by the lame duck Lehman Bros., which in all likelihood, will soon be joining the likes of Bear Stearns, Kidder Peabody, EF Hutton, and DLJ in that big subprime market in the sky without producing one promised job to the State. How about that.

When a NJ pension fund manager was asked about the LEH investment and rapid slide of the stock, his response was old school, saying "We are in for the long term". The stalwarts of value, Bill Miller, William Nygren, Richard Pzena, Chris Davis, ad nausium, when asked about their large holdings in FNM, FRE, C, WM, AIG, and the housing sector, responded verbatim even though they were thousands of miles apart from each other that, their cash flow models showed that these securities were vastly mispriced by the market and that they were in for the long term. Uncanny!!

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phil
I'm a professional trader with 25 years of experience. I try to avoid all outside influences and other opinions when it comes to trading. All that matters is price. Forget the other BS its basically useless.
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